90th Annual Academy Awards Predictions

Oh my.  I spent a criminal amount of time putting this together.  This is the year we saw almost everything.  If it doesn't have a link, it means I haven't seen it, mostly because I can't get a hold of it.  The only two that I could still technically see is Ferdinand and Fences Places, but let's call a spade a spade.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET: Call Me by Your Name
DANIEL DAY-LEWIS: Phantom Thread
DANIEL KALUUYA: Get Out
GARY OLDMAN: Darkest Hour
DENZEL WASHINGTON: Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Whom I Want to Win: Daniel Kaluuya
Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Who Actually Won: Gary Oldman

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
WILLEM DAFOE: The Florida Project
WOODY HARRELSON: Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
RICHARD JENKINS: The Shape of Water
CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER: All the Money in the World
SAM ROCKWELL: Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Whom I Want to Win: Willem Dafoe
Who Will Win: Willem Dafoe or Christopher Plummer
WHO ACTUALLY GOT IT:  Sam Rockwell​

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
SALLY HAWKINS: The Shape of Water
FRANCES MCDORMAND: Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
MARGOT ROBBIE: I, Tonya (Review Pending)
SAOIRSE RONAN: Lady Bird
MERYL STREEP: The Post

Whom I Want to Win: Sally Hawkins or Margot Robbie
Who Will Win: Sally Hawkins or Saoirse Ronan
Who Actually Got It: Frances McDormand

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
MARY J. BLIGE: Mudbound
ALLISON JANNEY: I, Tonya (Review Pending)
LESLEY MANVILLE: Phantom Thread
LAURIE METCALF: Lady Bird
OCTAVIA SPENCER: The Shape of Water

Whom I Want to Win: Allison Janney or Laurie Metcalf
Who Will Win: Laurie Metcalf
Who Actually Won: Allison Janney

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
THE BOSS BABY: Tom McGrath and Ramsey Naito
THE BREADWINNER: Nora Twomey and Anthony Leo
COCO: Lee Unkrich and Darla K. Anderson
FERDINAND: Carlos Saldanha and Lori Forte
LOVING VINCENT: Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman and Ivan Mactaggart

What I Want to Win: The Breadwinner
What Will Win: Coco

CINEMATOGRAPHY
BLADE RUNNER 2049: Roger A. Deakins
DARKEST HOUR: Bruno Delbonnel
DUNKIRK: Hoyte van Hoytema
MUDBOUND: Rachel Morrison
THE SHAPE OF WATER: Dan Laustsen

What I Want to Win: Blade Runner 2049
What Will Win: The Shape of Water or Dunkirk

COSTUME DESIGN
BEAUTY AND THE BEAST: Jacqueline Durran
DARKEST HOUR: Jacqueline Durran
PHANTOM THREAD: Mark Bridges
THE SHAPE OF WATER: Luis Sequeira
VICTORIA & ABDUL: Consolata Boyle

What I Want to Win: Phantom Thread
What Will Win: Phantom Thread

​DIRECTING
DUNKIRK: Christopher Nolan
GET OUT: Jordan Peele
LADY BIRD: Greta Gerwig
PHANTOM THREAD: Paul Thomas Anderson
THE SHAPE OF WATER: Guillermo del Toro

Whom I Want to Win: Jordan Peele
Who Will Win: Guillermo del Toro

DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)
ABACUS: SMALL ENOUGH TO JAIL: Steve James, Mark Mitten and Julie Goldman
FACES PLACES: Agnès Varda, JR and Rosalie Varda
ICARUS: Bryan Fogel and Dan Cogan
LAST MEN IN ALEPPO: Feras Fayyad, Kareem Abeed and Søren Steen Jespersen
STRONG ISLAND: Yance Ford and Joslyn Barnes

What I Want to Win: Icarus
What Will Win: Last Men in Aleppo (but I'm cool with that too)

DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)
EDITH+EDDIE: Laura Checkoway and Thomas Lee Wright
The description on this one is way off.  It is described as a documentary short about the oldest interracial couple.  While technically true, that isn't the focus of this documentary.  It is about two elderly folks who just want to stay together, despite a seemingly greedy child who wants to inherit an estate.  I don't know if I've ever seen a documentary made that publicly condemns the actions of a nonfamous person, but that person's professional life has to be in the toilet right now.

HEAVEN IS A TRAFFIC JAM ON THE 405: Frank Stiefel
There's always the art documentary somewhere on the board.  This one tends to go a little bit deeper than most.  Despite having a really shoehorned in title, I find the documentary fascinating.  Not only does it explore the world of art, but it does so in the context of autism and abuse.  On top of that, the art presented really is very impressive.

HEROIN(E): Elaine McMillion Sheldon and Kerrin Sheldon
This is the first one of the shorts that I watched and it was worth it.  Rather than take the traditional route of seeing drug use through a legal perspective, the film follows three women as they try to combat this problem from a personal route.  It humanizes the drug epidemic and shows the souls of those trying desperately trying to free them from this addiction.  

KNIFE SKILLS: Thomas Lennon
While I'm sure that this documentary isn't showing the whole picture, I do love the message of redemption within it.  A smart move on the filmmakers' parts, they focus on a guy who wouldn't appear to be an ex-con trying to help those recently turned out of the penal system.  The film is also a visual treat, showing the talented creations of the restaurant and its employees.

TRAFFIC STOP: Kate Davis and David Heilbroner
On rare occasion, I turn on a documentary.  I'll start off on their team, and through the course of poor filmmaking, I change sides a little bit.  I think the message of "Traffic Stop" needs to be told, but not with the subject getting all of the attention.  The subject sees herself as being the model citizen, but the video shows quite differently.  While I agree completely that the officer went too far, trying to paint someone who isn't a saint otherwise tends to burn an audience's good will.  Tell this story again, only with a different subject because there are plenty of people out there who have been violated.

What I Want to Win: "Heroin"(e) or "Knife Skills"
What Will Win: "Traffic Stop"
What Actually Won: "Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405"
​
FILM EDITING
BABY DRIVER: Paul Machliss and Jonathan Amos
DUNKIRK: Lee Smith
I, TONYA: Tatiana S. Riegel (Review Pending)
THE SHAPE OF WATER: Sidney Wolinsky
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI: Jon Gregory

What I Want to Win: Baby Driver
What Will Win: Baby Driver
What Actually Won​: Dunkirk

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM (Note:  Three of these movies aren't available in my area.  My guess is pure speculation)
A FANTASTIC WOMAN: Chile
THE INSULT: Lebanon
LOVELESS: Russia
ON BODY AND SOUL: Hungary
THE SQUARE: Sweden

What I Want to Win: The Square
What Will Win: The Insult
What Actually Won​: A Fantastic Woman

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
DARKEST HOUR: Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski and Lucy Sibbick
VICTORIA & ABDUL: Daniel Phillips and Lou Sheppard
WONDER: Arjen Tuiten

What I Want to Win: Darkest Hour
What Will Win: Darkest Hour

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
DUNKIRK: Hans Zimmer
PHANTOM THREAD: Jonny Greenwood
THE SHAPE OF WATER: Alexandre Desplat
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI: John Williams
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI: Carter Burwell

What I Want to Win: Phantom Thread or The Shape of Water
What Will Win: Phantom Thread
What Actually Won: The Shape of Water

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
"MIGHTY RIVER"
from Mudbound; Music and Lyric by Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq and Taura Stinson
"MYSTERY OF LOVE"
from Call Me by Your Name; Music and Lyric by Sufjan Stevens
"REMEMBER ME"
from Coco; Music and Lyric by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
"STAND UP FOR SOMETHING"
from Marshall; Music by Diane Warren; Lyric by Lonnie R. Lynn and Diane Warren
"THIS IS ME"
from The Greatest Showman; Music and Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul

What I Want to Win: "Remember Me"
What Will Win: "This is Me"

BEST PICTURE
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
Peter Spears, Luca Guadagnino, Emilie Georges and Marco Morabito, Producers

DARKEST HOUR
Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Lisa Bruce, Anthony McCarten and Douglas Urbanski, Producers

DUNKIRK
Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan, Producers

GET OUT
Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Edward H. Hamm Jr. and Jordan Peele, Producers

LADY BIRD
Scott Rudin, Eli Bush and Evelyn O'Neill, Producers

PHANTOM THREAD
JoAnne Sellar, Paul Thomas Anderson, Megan Ellison and Daniel Lupi, Producers

THE POST
Amy Pascal, Steven Spielberg and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers

THE SHAPE OF WATER
Guillermo del Toro and J. Miles Dale, Producers

THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin and Martin McDonagh, Producers

What I Want to Win: Get Out
What Will Win: Lady Bird
Curveball: Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
What Actually Won: The Shape of Water

PRODUCTION DESIGN
BEAUTY AND THE BEAST: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
BLADE RUNNER 2049: Dennis Gassner; Set Decoration: Alessandra Querzola
DARKEST HOUR: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
DUNKIRK: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Gary Fettis
THE SHAPE OF WATER: Paul Denham Austerberry; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau and Jeffrey A. Melvin

What I Want to Win: Blade Runner 2049
What Will Win: The Shape of Water

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
"DEAR BASKETBALL": Glen Keane and Kobe Bryant
Really?  Really, little cartoon glorifying basketball as this noble profession?  The reason I'm so into the Academy Awards is that I don't like sports.  I don't need this ESPN garbage rammed down my throat.  This animated short is super stylized, so that's fun.  But it also is kind of sloppy.  The style of the short tries covering for shortcuts being taken, but gross.  Also, again, I don't care about Kobe Bryant.

"GARDEN PARTY": Victor Caire and Gabriel Grapperon
When I first saw Toy Story, it blew my mind that someone could do that with a computer.  This one is another big step forward.  It looks so cool and doesn't really have that uncanny valley feel to it.  I think it is because as cool as the textures are, the design is still pretty stylized.  I don't know why they surrounded a drug dealer.  It took this very innocent idea and made it bro-ey.  I get the message, but there's probably a better way to do that.

"LOU": Dave Mullins and Dana Murray
I normally love Pixar shorts.  They are abstract and heady while being playful.  I felt like this one might have been developed when they were short on ideas.  It is a pretty lazy concept and, while playful, doesn't quite get the Pixar spark that their other shorts manage to achieve.  I actually found myself a little bored in a very short film and that's probably no good.

"NEGATIVE SPACE": Max Porter and Ru Kuwahata
This one is probably the most personal and the one I really want to win the most, despite that I see some really obvious flaws with it.  It is a personal story and it ties the mundane to something larger.  I appreciate that the filmmakers found this moment that we've all experienced and tried making it more important than it is.  I don't know if they achieved that, but it is pretty to look at.

"REVOLTING RHYMES": Jakob Schuh and Jan Lachauer
It's a bit of a cop out calling this one a short.  It is two half-hour episodes adapting Roald Dahl's work, so I guess it could be a short.  Regardless, there are more good things than bad things about this group.  It doesn't really feel like a passion piece, but it is mostly fun.  There were times that I was getting bored, but I wasn't the target audience.  The problem is that it might be too grizzly for its target audience.

What I Want to Win: "Garden Party"
What Will Win: "Dear Basketball"

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
"DEKALB ELEMENTARY": Reed Van Dyk
This started out as the most powerful of the shorts, especially in light of the events in Florida recently.  But it also is very limited by the short form format.  The movie ties up the events way too quickly and in a slightly accidentally irresponsible way.  There's is this unintentional victim blaming that happens because the film offers a solution that really wouldn't work.

"THE ELEVEN O'CLOCK": Derin Seale and Josh Lawson
Probably the only fun one out of the group.  I know it isn't going to win because there are so many important topics in here.  But the others are so similar in tone that it is refreshing to watch something that is so different.  It is a bit more like a comedy sketch that you'd see in a night of live theatre scenes, but that's not the worst thing in the world.  Despite the ending being predictable, it is still a good time.

"MY NEPHEW EMMETT": Kevin Wilson, Jr.
My thoughts on this might be more telling of our culture and how we kind of suck as a collective at times.  I've seen this movie before.  I've seen it done before and it's done more to me.  That, in itself, is absolutely horrifying.  This has happened to so many people that I'm becoming desensitized.  This story needs to be told, but I wish there was a way to make it impact more people.

"THE SILENT CHILD": Chris Overton and Rachel Shenton
The tone of this movie is all wrong.  Again, this can be attributed to the fact that this is a short.  To make this story work, the mother has to be demonized.  She doesn't seem like a real character whatsoever and that's a real problem.  Ending the movie with the text asking for social change means that the film hasn't really achieved its goals.  I really wanted to like this movie, but with Mom being all crazypants, I can't say it ever really felt real.

"WATU WOTE/ALL OF US": Katja Benrath and Tobias Rosen
This might be the most impressive of the shorts.  It looks absolutely amazing and manages to tell the whole story in the short format.  There are some character choices that are shortcuts in terms of storytelling.  The personalities have to be extremes to show how much the character have grown over the course of a short time.  

What I Want to Win: "The Eleven O'Clock"
What Will Win: "DeKalb Elementary"
What Actually Won​:  "The Silent Child"

SOUND EDITING
BABY DRIVER: Julian Slater
BLADE RUNNER 2049: Mark Mangini and Theo Green
DUNKIRK: Richard King and Alex Gibson
THE SHAPE OF WATER: Nathan Robitaille and Nelson Ferreira
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI: Matthew Wood and Ren Klyce

What I Want to Win: Baby Driver
What Will Win: Dunkirk

SOUND MIXING
BABY DRIVER: Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin and Mary H. Ellis
BLADE RUNNER 2049: Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill and Mac Ruth
DUNKIRK: Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo and Mark Weingarten
THE SHAPE OF WATER: Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern and Glen Gauthier
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI: David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Stuart Wilson

What I Want to Win: Baby Driver
What Will Win: Dunkirk

VISUAL EFFECTS
BLADE RUNNER 2049: John Nelson, Gerd Nefzer, Paul Lambert and Richard R. Hoover
GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 2: Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner and Dan Sudick
KONG: SKULL ISLAND: Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza and Mike Meinardus
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI: Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Neal Scanlan and Chris Corbould
WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES: Joe Letteri, Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon and Joel Whist

What I Want to Win: Blade Runner 2049
What Will Win: War for the Planet of the Apes

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME: Screenplay by James Ivory
THE DISASTER ARTIST: Screenplay by Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
LOGAN: Screenplay by Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green; Story by James Mangold
MOLLY'S GAME: Written for the screen by Aaron Sorkin
MUDBOUND: Screenplay by Virgil Williams and Dee Rees

What I Want to Win: The Disaster Artist
What Will Win: Call Me By Your Name

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
THE BIG SICK: Written by Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
GET OUT: Written by Jordan Peele
LADY BIRD: Written by Greta Gerwig
THE SHAPE OF WATER: Screenplay by Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor; Story by Guillermo del Toro
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI: Written by Martin McDonagh

What I Want to Win: The Big Sick or Get Out
What Will Win: Lady Bird
What Actually Won: Get Out